Working papers

Social learning expectations: micro-foundations and a Dynare toolbox
by Alex Grimaud, Isabelle Salle and Gauthier Vermandel

2023 (May)
This paper introduces (i) a micro-founded New Keynesian model with social learning expectations and (ii) a general solution method that we implement in a Dynare toolbox that solves any linear state-space model with social learning expectations.

Unemployment risk and temporary UI benefits increases
by Alex Grimaud

2022 (June)
The welfare implications of increasing government spending in general, and UI transfers in particular, are very dependent on the state of the labor market.

The Euro Area government spending multiplier in demand- and supply-driven recessions
by Mario Di Serio, Matteo Fragetta, Emanuel Gasteiger and Giovanni Melina

2022 (updated, September 2022)
Euro Area government spending multipliers in a demand-driven recession are 2-3 times larger than in a supply-driven recession.

Precautionary saving and un-anchored expectations
by Alex Grimaud

2020 (updated, December 2021)
In a monetary policy model with idiosyncratic shocks and bounded rational expectations, output stabilization is essential.

Social learning and monetary policy at the effective lower bound
by Jasmina Arifovic, Alex Grimaud, Isabelle Salle and Gauthier Vermandel

2020 (updated, February 2023)
A model with heterogeneous expectations jointly accounts for the missing disinflation in the wake of the Great Recession and the subsequently observed inflation-less recovery.

Endogenously (non-)Ricardian beliefs
by Emanuel Gasteiger and William Branch

2018 (updated, October 2022)
A paper on multiple equilibria featuring both Ricardian and non-Ricardian outcomes that impact inflation dynamics.

Journal articles

Price setting frequency and the Phillips curve
by Emanuel Gasteiger and Alex Grimaud

2023. European Economic Review (conditionally accepted).

Average inflation targeting and the interest rate lower bound
by Flora Budianto, Taisuke Nakata, and Sebastian Schmidt

2023. European Economic Review, 152(C):104384.

Optimal Constrained Interest-Rate Rules under Heterogeneous Expectations
by Emanuel Gasteiger

2021. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 190:287-325.